2025 Concordia Annual Summit

The Economics of Peace in the Middle East

  • Democracy, Security, & Geopolitical Risk
Hagar Hajjar Chemali, Carlos Abadi, Hussain Abdul-Hussain, Ammar Abdulhamid

Session Summary

Important
Quotations

“We’re going to talk about an angle of Middle East peace that doesn’t get the attention I think it deserves, the economic and business arguments for peace in the region.”
Hagar Hajjar Chemali
“Whenever I pitched the idea to a Lebanese person two years ago, the first question was, ‘Well, what’s in it for me?’ And I’d say, ‘What do you mean? The deal is peace for peace, there’s peace in it for you.’ And they’d say, ‘Ah, not interested.’”
Carlos Abadi
“The Emiratis decided that to keep growing, they had to move away from reliance on fossil fuel exports and build a services and knowledge-based economy. They decided, ‘From now on, we’re not thinking in terms of national emotions, we’re thinking in terms of national interests.’”
Hussain Abdul-Hussain
“The Syrian street has been ready for peace with Israel since the 1990s. People saw peace as a way to finally focus on domestic issues, to open markets and reform the economic and political systems.”
Ammar Abdulhamid

Key
Takeaways

  • Economic Incentives as Peace Catalysts: The Abraham Accords model demonstrates that economic cooperation can transcend traditional geopolitical barriers. UAE-Israeli trade reached $11.5 billion from 2020-2025, with projections of $10 billion annually, while trade with Bahrain shot up to $108 million in 2024 despite regional tensions. This represents a shift from “cold peace” (government-only agreements) to “hot peace” (people-to-people economic engagement).

 

  • Investment Over Aid Approach: Mutual investment generates sustainable revenue streams rather than dependency relationships. Carlos Abadi’s Lebanon plan exemplifies this by proposing to restore frozen bank deposits through state asset securitization, making peace economically attractive to citizens who previously asked “what’s in it for me?” rather than accepting “peace for peace.” 

 

  • Readiness for Economic-Driven Peace: Syrian citizens have been prepared for peace since the 1990s, viewing it as essential for economic development and foreign investment. The current Syrian leadership shows “a libertarian streak about economic investments and opening the economy,” making peace necessary to attract reconstruction funding.

 

  • Trust-Building Through Economic Cooperation: Economic partnerships can serve as confidence-building measures where political trust is lacking. This addresses the broader theme of rebuilding trust in democratic institutions by creating tangible, mutual benefits that transcend political rhetoric.

Action
Items

  • For Policymakers and International Organizations: Develop Economic Peace Frameworks prioritizing mutual investment over traditional aid, establish phased sanctions relief tied to measurable peace milestones, and create multi-sector investment vehicles for joint infrastructure, technology, and sustainable development projects in post-conflict regions.

 

  • For Private Sector and Financial Institutions: Develop conflict-to-commerce transition plans to deploy capital quickly after political agreements, and establish sovereignty extension metrics requiring measurable governmental authority before major investments.

 

  • For Civil Society and Democratic Institution Building: Launch economic literacy campaigns to demonstrate tangible benefits of peace agreements, and create cross-border business networks that foster people-to-people economic relationships resilient to political tensions.

 

  • For Technology and Innovation Sectors: Develop peace-building technology platforms using AI to identify economic cooperation opportunities and monitor progress in peace implementation.

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