"What's unique about AI is that it is the most significant technology the world has ever known that everyone discovered at the exact same time. On November 30th, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT’s public web interface, and every country, every business, every person, from the most sophisticated engineer to my own mother, experienced this moment simultaneously. It was simultaneous without parity."
Jared Cohen
Key Takeaways
Unprecedented Global Simultaneity: AI represents the first major technology where “the entire world found out about [it] at the exact same time” through ChatGPT’s release, creating “simultaneity without parity” unlike the internet’s decades-long rollout.
Impossibility of Global AI Regulation: Current divergence among nations makes “global multilateral regulation” impossible, with “too much divergence” in national approaches and proliferating non-state actors complicating governance.
Economic Interdependence in Competition: The U.S.-China AI race is unique because America’s “third largest trading partner” is also “its most formidable adversary,” creating unprecedented competitive dynamics where economies remain “deeply intertwined.”
Rise of Geopolitical Swing States: Countries with “differentiated parts of the supply chain” and “flexible capital” can exploit the U.S.-China competition, representing a new category beyond traditional “Global South” classifications.
Innovation from Necessity: The most significant AI applications will emerge from regions that “don’t have the luxury of being the epicenter of technological innovation” through “dual innovation” – Silicon Valley builds, others define usage.
Action Items
For Policymakers: Develop new frameworks by creating a “new doctrine” and “new thesis” to navigate unprecedented AI and geopolitical dynamics. Focus on regional strategies, abandoning impossible global regulation in favor of practical regional approaches.
For Developing Nations: Maximize strategic flexibility by positioning as geopolitical swing states to exploit competition between major powers. Invest in differentiated capabilities, developing unique supply chain positions and maintaining flexible capital.
For Private Sector: Prepare for dual innovation, recognizing that practical AI use cases will emerge from necessity-driven regions, not just tech centers. Build resilient supply chains to accommodate continued U.S.-China interdependence despite tensions.
For International Organizations: Facilitate knowledge access by ensuring AI brings information to the fingertips of any individual via mobile access. Address infrastructure gaps by supporting edge computing deployment to minimize bandwidth constraints.
For Academic Institutions: Study new models to research implications of economically intertwined competitors, requiring fresh analytical approaches. Focus on practical AI use cases over technological capabilities alone.
