2025 Concordia Annual Summit

Remarks: Jason Miller, SHW Partners LLC

  • Democracy, Security, & Geopolitical Risk
Jason Miller

Session Summary

Important
Quotations

"Do the countries of Africa want to be partners or they want to be prisoners? Because you look at what China is doing to the countries in Africa, that is exactly it."
Jason Miller

Key
Takeaways

  • Economic Growth and Investment Potential: Africa is set to become the world’s third-largest economic bloc by 2050, surpassing Europe, with Nigeria projected to rank ninth globally. The continent represents a generational investment opportunity, akin to Singapore in the 1980s or China in the 1990s, driven by vast infrastructure needs in power, water, and digital systems, and rapid smartphone adoption.

 

  • Geopolitical Strategic Importance: As U.S.-China de-risking accelerates, Africa emerges as a key arena for Western engagement, rich in critical minerals essential to global supply chains. The continent faces a decisive crossroads between partnership and dependency, with China’s debt-driven model creating “prisoners” rather than partners through economic and environmental exploitation.

 

  • Investment Risk Framework: Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors outweigh micro-level considerations in African investment decisions, with rule of law, anti-corruption efforts, and political stability as core viability indicators. Successful technology investments must be locally designed and adapted to infrastructure realities, built for Lagos, not Los Angeles.

 

  • China’s Problematic Engagement Model: China’s approach, marked by unregulated trawling, toxic spills, and debt diplomacy, has created extractive rather than developmental relationships across Africa and increasingly in South America, exposing a broader global pattern of exploitation.

 

  • For Western Governments and Multilateral Organizations: Create robust investment frameworks providing genuine infrastructure financing as alternatives to Chinese models, prioritizing true economic partnerships over social initiatives, and implementing risk protocols centered on governance, transparency, and stability.

 

  • For Private Sector and Investment Community: Expand emerging market allocations toward Sub-Saharan Africa amid global de-risking, develop technology solutions tailored to African realities, and forge equitable partnerships based on mutual benefit rather than dependency.

 

  • For African Nations: Strengthen institutions through rule of law and anti-corruption reforms to attract sustainable Western investment, critically assess Chinese partnerships to avoid debt traps, and enhance regional cooperation to increase bargaining power on the global stage.

 

  • For Technology and Infrastructure Development: Invest in critical infrastructure, data centers, fiber networks, and stable power, to underpin Africa’s digital future, promote sustainable alternatives to exploitative development models, and adopt leapfrog technologies to advance telecommunications and financial inclusion.

Action
Items

  • For Western Governments: Increase infrastructure investment by directing real capital toward power, water, and digital infrastructure projects rather than focusing on social engineering initiatives. Rebuild partnerships with African nations through meaningful economic engagement and investment opportunities. Support African nations in making strategic choices about international partnerships.


  • For Private Investors: Conduct thorough due diligence on governance factors, prioritizing countries with strong rule of law and anti-corruption measures. Focus on local market adaptation, ensure technology and business models work effectively in cities like Lagos rather than simply replicating Western approaches. Prioritize infrastructure prerequisites , verify that power, data centers, and connectivity infrastructure exist before investing in technology-dependent sectors.


  • For Investment Firms: Establish regional presence in key emerging market hubs like Dubai and Singapore to better serve Sub-Saharan African and Southeast Asian markets. Develop sector-specific expertise in critical infrastructure areas including power generation, water technology, and digital financial services.


  • Strategic Recommendations: Capitalize on the de-risking trend by positioning Western investment as an alternative to Chinese engagement. Focus on macro-level considerations as they supersede micro-level factors in African investment decisions. Target countries demonstrating good governance and avoid regions lacking rule of law or struggling with corruption.

 

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