2025 Concordia Annual Summit

Pioneering a New Era: Baltic Leadership in a Changing Europe

  • Democracy, Security, & Geopolitical Risk
Amb. Paula J. Dobriansky, Ph.D., H.E. Alar Karis, H.E. Edgars Rinkēvičs, H.E. Gitanas Nausėda

Session Summary

Important
Quotations

“I think Russia’s main objective is to divide allies. They probably hoped that both at NATO level and here at the United Nations the reaction would be somewhat murky. But what we’ve actually seen is the opposite, all allies have shown real solidarity.”
H.E. Alar Karis
“I think the United States is absolutely right to insist that every NATO ally not only increases defense spending but also ensures that this spending translates into real capabilities.”
H.E. Edgars Rinkēvičs
“If Lithuania, a country that was once highly dependent on Russian energy imports, was able to achieve independence just two months after the war broke out, why do other European countries still lack the commitment to follow our example?”
H.E. Gitanas Nausėda

Key
Takeaways

  • NATO Article 4 Invocations Signal Alliance Solidarity: The recent Russian airspace violations in Poland and Estonia 17 have resulted in NATO Article 4 consultations, demonstrating that allies remain unified despite hybrid warfare attempts to divide them. The establishment of NATO’s Eastern Sentry mission for airspace protection shows the alliance is adapting to new threats.

 

  • Hybrid Warfare Requires Multi-Domain Defense: Russian aggression extends beyond traditional military threats to include cyber attacks, critical infrastructure sabotage via shadow fleets, and weaponized migration. The Baltic states recognize these as coordinated attempts to “destroy confidence in our societies” and test EU external border defenses.

 

  • Defense Spending Commitments Drive Real Capabilities: All three Baltic presidents emphasized they are part of the “5% club” spending on defense, moving beyond NATO’s 2% requirement. As President Rinkēviċs noted, “Article 3 says that you must invest in your defense sufficiently” – focusing not just on spending money but building “real capability.” 

 

  • Ukrainian Security Guarantees Require Multiple Approaches: While NATO membership remains the “cheapest and most credible option” for Ukraine’s long-term security, the president acknowledged this requires consensus from all 32 allies. Alternative approaches include building a strong 800,000-person Ukrainian army, European troop deployments, and air defense capabilities.
  • Energy Independence Demonstrates European Resolve: Lithuania successfully cut off all Russian energy imports within two months of the 2022 invasion, despite being highly dependent on Russian resources. This demonstrates that rapid decoupling is achievable when there is political will.

Action
Items

  • Immediate Security Measures: Accelerate the deployment of integrated air defense systems across Eastern Europe, emphasizing anti-drone capabilities for cost-effective protection, expand NATO’s Eastern Sentry mission to enhance airspace monitoring and rapid response, and strengthen critical infrastructure security against shadow fleet operations and sabotage in the Baltic Sea.

 

  • Ukraine Support Framework: Establish clear rules of engagement for potential European peacekeeping forces with U.S. logistical backing, accelerate Patriot missile deliveries through coordinated multinational equipment pools, and resolve EU consensus barriers blocking Ukraine’s accession negotiation progress.

 

  • Alliance Strengthening Initiatives: Institutionalize the 5% club as a standard linking defense spending to capability outcomes, develop coordinated strategies to counter hybrid warfare and disinformation targeting NATO’s credibility, and expand transatlantic energy cooperation by replicating Lithuania’s LNG terminal model to reduce Russian dependence.

 

  • Long-term Strategic Planning: Prepare contingency plans acknowledging Putin’s unwillingness to negotiate, reinforce Article 4 consultation mechanisms while preserving their effectiveness for serious threats, and invest in building democratic resilience against prolonged hybrid warfare undermining social cohesion and institutional legitimacy.

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